Freddy is + his plays on Sunday are FREE! You can only get that deal here at http://www.sportsbetcapping.com/freddywills
Wisconsin is a play despite their poor play a week ago in the 10-6 loss at home. Nebraska also struggled and lost on the road against Illinois. Which team rebounds? I think Wisconsin mainly because they have the far superior defense ranking 15th in yards per play while Nebraska defense ranks 93rd and they have both played similar teams. The fact is Wisconsin actually out played Iowa and should have won holding them to 221 yards, but had 4 turnovers while Nebraska was outgained by about 100 against Illinois, an offense ranked 94th in yards per play.
Wisconsin just needs to avoid the turnover and they will be fine here. Joel Stave should have a bounce back game like he typically does against a Nebraska passing defense that is just one of the worst in the country allowing over 350 yards per game. This is a good situation for Wisconsin considering they havenât bene able to run the ball like in years past. Wisconsin has a QB rating of 156 in wins and 112 in losses while Nebraska too has the same 161 in wins and 110 in losses. The difference is Wisconsin can get to the QB better and they protect their QB better. The pass defense is ranked 16th for Wisconsin while Nebraska is 81st, and they have the better more experienced QB here. It may be a risk betting and backing Joel Stave, but he does not have to do much and should have a ton of time.
Oregon State is off a bye, and I like what I saw from them early in games this season. With the bye, I see this team coming in fresh and a lot stronger with a lot of preparation for Arizona. I believe this game should be close throughout, because Arizona has really struggled vs. the run and they will face a QB in Seth Collins who has really been impressive to go along with Storm Woods. I truly thought they played better against Stanford than Arizona did and I believe Gary Andersen is a bit of a better coach. His defense is improving and have held opponents to 27.45% on third down. They have also been very good against the pass which is a huge key in beating Arizona. In 2014 â Arizona had a 146 QB rating in wins, and a 96 QB rating in losses, and the same is true this year with a 158 QB rating in wins and a 100 QB rating in losses. Oregon State has the capability of slowing this offense down enough, but even if they are able to move the ball they have been better on third down and I actually think Oregon State will be able to move the ball.
Oregon Stateâs offense is under rated and Arizona has given up 10 rushing TDâs in their last 2 games alone and have yet to face an offense with a running QB as an added dynamic and thatâs what Seth Collins brings with this game. Arizona also has really struggled in pass defense, they also have allowed 47.5% conversions on third downs and double the red zone attempts compared to Oregon Stateâs red zone defense. Oregon Stateâs offense has faced 2 of the top defenses in Stanford and Oregon State which should help with preparation. This is a young team with a good coach that will continue to improve throughout the year.
This line truly says a lot about what the oddsmakers think about Michigan in the early going, but I think they are just a bit over hyped at this point and I believe there is no way they are not looking ahead to Michigan State. The total is down to 34.5 and we have over a TD to work with and that makes me very confident in a match up between two teams that are nearly identical in a lot of ways. For Northwestern there is still a perception that they will start to trip up when the Big 10 conference starts like they have in the past, but this is Pat Fitzgeraldâs best defense, a defense heâs been building for years. We saw glimpses of it last year when they had several big road wins including at Notre Dame and at Penn State. In the past it was Northwestern leaning on the offense that was not able to get them the wins they wanted in conference play. I said it last week when we backed the Wildcats, they continue to get no respect. I even said in my analysis last week that they would not give up a TD against Minnesota as they shut them out.
Now each team has a below average QB and will be going up against a top tier passing defense. I give the edge slightly to Northwestern here as their pass defense has been a bit better and Thorson has done a better job taking care of the football and is also more mobile giving his offense more of a shot with his legs. Thorson had a nice long rushing TD against Stanford earlier in the year, another strong defense and Michigan showed they had issues containing Travis Wilson who had 52 rushing yards on 12 carries when they hosted Michigan to open the season. Actually you can really look at those two match ups of Utah vs. Michigan, and Northwestern vs. Stanford, because itâs Big 10 vs. Pac 12 and all 4 play a very similar style of football. Northwestern was just as impressive if not more impressive in their game against Stanford especially vs. the run.
Speaking of the run both teams will run the ball 60% of the time in this game, and while Michigan does have the edge in rushing offense and rushing defense I donât think itâs as big as the numbers indicate. Northwestern has faced 3 top 50 rushing defenses and have rushed for a higher average in 2 of them, while Michigan has only faced 1 top 50 rushing defense and was held 1.5 yards below what Utahâs run defense average was which makes you believe Northwesternâs rushing game is better than numbers would indicate, but they have played the stronger defenses with Duke, Stanford on the schedule all in the top 50. On the flip side their defense has also faced 2 top 50 rushing offenses while Michigan only faced 1. Still I give small edge in the running game to Michigan and it makes sense why they are favored.
In the end itâs going to be the small things, penalties, special teams, and other key spot play in the red zone and on third downs. In reality itâs again all pretty much even. Northwestern has been absolutely dominant on third down and in red zone defense allowing 20% on third down and 10% TD% while Michiganâs offense has been a bit better in red zone conversions and just as nasty on third down but is allowing 67% TD%. Northwestern is +4 in turnover margin while Michigan is -2, and they are being penalized almost 2 fewer per game. Both kickers are slightly above average and have gone 2-4 on field goals 40+ yards. Northwestern has been very good in the return game with a punt and kick off return for TD. This game with the low total and not even a significant coaching advantage along with the fact that Michigan players canât help themselves but look forward to the Michigan State show down are all reasons why you canât sleep on Northwestern and at this price itâs hard not to take them as they will have a shot at winning the game barring a ton of turnovers.
